By Michael Every of Rabobank
The free speech vs. censorship issue that erupted again this week in the US ——- has ——- ————- for ——-. Markets might not want to admit that fact, but it does. Aren’t market trading decisions supposed to proceed in an environment in which we have full ———— about what is going on? ———— not. Good luck making —– ———- about what to — and what to —- when you don’t know —- — —– –. Meanwhile, here is what we are allowed to talk about.
In the US, the head of the FCC has stepped in to say he is going to rule on Section 230, which allows social media to be platforms, and so immune to liability for anything posted on them, while also now acting as censors. Logically, this suggests either a ruling reaffirming no such censorship can take place without breaching the ‘publisher’ red line; or that this line must be breached, but at enormous cost, as all posts will have to be monitored at all times. An example raised by the White House press secretary, currently banned from Twitter(!), is that perhaps if a certain Middle Eastern country tweets it wants to destroy another, it might not get the legal clean pass from the publisher/platform that it does at the moment. There are obviously a myriad of others.
In the world of markets, which rely on (expensive) news-feeds, all this seems ———–. Which it really isn’t. Where we do have news today, trade and stimulus still predominate:
Australian press claim China is now no longer taking Australian cotton. It’s been all of a few days since we heard the same thing about Aussie coal, and weeks since we heard it about wine and dairy and beef and barley. Can one spot a pattern? Iron ore is still safe for now, of course: but let’s see what happens when the new mega mine in Guinea comes on-line. This is also just after the RBA governor gave a speech that suggested they are about to cut rates to 0.1% and do some more serious QE to see bond yields move lower all along the curve and not just out to 3-years. AUD seems to think both of these things are happening in a different country: or perhaps it is getting headlines like this ‘——- — ——— ——–‘?
We have also heard the US threaten to —— —— (which a VPN lets me see means ‘strike harder’) on sanctions against the EU if Europe proceeds with USD4bn in tariffs on it. Is this bullish EUR?
And today is apparently Brexit decision day for PM Johnson, who just as he locks down much of the country due to —— (as you have to call it if you want to publish any video on ——) has to decide if he will also lock down trade talks after mexed missages from the EU. These had prompted the UK Brexit negotiator to say he was “surprised” and “disappointed” on Twitter, which hasn’t blocked him yet.
Bloomberg reports, cleared by the censors, say that BoJo is going to make up his mind today whether to Keep Calm and Carry on Talking or not. Will he buckle and look soft? Will he walk away and look tough? Whichever option he chooses, at least half the country will be furious at him over something other than —— for once. GBP will watching for white smoke with intent.
In trade terms, both Singapore and Korea saw encouraging export data, suggesting the key electronics sector might be recovering. However, we do still have the EU-moving-slowly-back-towards-lock-down thing weighing on global consumer sentiment.
Meanwhile, on the fiscal front it is still all quiet. Trump is prepared to offer more than USD1.8 trillion and to cajole Senate Republicans; Pelosi says stimulus can’t wait until January; and maybe things will move as initial claims jobless data move higher again. Unless pre-election political posturing and blame-shifting wins the day again, that is, because it is getting very late to swing votes towards anyone: to swing away is easier, perhaps. Yet could a compromise on at least extended unemployment benefits be found post those claims data(?) USD will swing on that.
On other fronts, ——- ——– ———– ———– –. ——— ———- ——- ———–. It is —— ————— ———- ————– ———– regrettable. —– ——- —- – —– ——— —— ————- —————- ——– —-. Winners —— ———– —————- ——– ——– —- -. ———- —- – ———- —-. Losers —— ——– ——— ——- ——–. Who ———- ———- ——— —— knows ——– ———- ——- —–.
Can —— ——— ——– ———- you ——- ———-. Spot —— ——— ——- ——- —– a ——– ——-. Hidden ———- ——— —————- ——– ———- message —— ——-. ——– ——— ————– ——- ——— —.
—– ——– —-send ——– —– money ——- ——————— —————–now —————- ——————-.
Now go be an efficient market, market people!